Busted

Friday morning, 8.15, FED president Ben Bernanke officially announces QE2, dollar plummets 70+ pips one E/U in 2 minutes. What do you do?

1) Make the logical conclusion that more money means cheaper money, i.e. you sell USD, because E/U just made new highs and the trend shall continue.

2) Let E/U retrace to pre-announcement levels, buy it, quickly scalp 15 pips and be done for the day.

3) Sell E/U at the highs with a tight stop, knowing everything bounces.

4) Don't do anything, go eat breakfast and come back when the market calms down.

Here's the one-hour chart.



E/U sold off 200 pips after the announcement. First, people who were short got killed on the initial spike up. Then, people who went long got killed during the drop.

Usual market behavior? Probably not.
Surprising market behavior? Probably not.
Untradeable market behavior? Probably not.
The reality of trading? Yes.

After seeing the spike, I initially went short, then long after the retracement. I got out for +10 each time. Then E/U just got stuck and refused to go higher? Sign of something fishy going on there? I look at U/CHF moving higher, U/CAD moving higher and even U/J moving higher. I short E/U, boom drops immediately. I get out for +15 and call it a day. E/U then drops another 150 pips throughout the day, but I don't really care. It might as well have continued higher.

I talked about the divergence on E/U on Thursday, but I also said I wasn't going to short it right away. It was a good decision wasn't it? I waited for a move up, then shorted and got out very quickly. No need to have an open position during the day and stress about it at work. 20 pips = 2% for me, do it every day and you're up 40-45% a month.

One more thing. I did trade E/U on Friday, but not just E/U. Everyone is trading E/U now and the more people trade, the more volatility you'll see. I traded U/CHF and U/CAD as well, which moved less but certainly with less volatility. By trading instrument not everyone is talking about at the moment, you can go "under the radar", hence avoid the volatility. People say only n00bs trade E/U. Well, let me rephrase. N00bs who lose usually trade E/U :)

Now enough of this, let's look at what you could have done during the day. E/U first came to 1.4000, bounced 20+ pips, then bounced 40+ pips (however, I wouldn't have traded the second bounce up for sure), then bounced off the red moving average. Beautiful.



U/J had a textbook bounce off the hourly low. I don't trade U/J, but seeing this tells you one thing - someone wants to buy a lot of greenbacks!



Here's E/J, first look at the hourly chart. First, the trendline was broken and the blue line would have been your buy.



On M15 you see that we bounced 20+ pips up, exactly to the trendline, then continued the down move.



That's it, have a great weekend :)

Tyler

E/U break not convincing

Yesterday's break on E/U doesn't seem to be that convincing. Why? Because we made it all the way up to 1.4121 and currently are 100 pips lower. That's too weak in my book. Furthermore, we have some serious divergence on daily. But, am I going to short it now? Hell no :) I'll wait for the test of the highs and quickly scalp the bounces.



Today was kind of slow, I only identified two good trades. E/J first broke the channel then retraced and bounced off the support (this was yesterday indeed). Today, the highs/lows are holding and few bounces occurred. One thing is interesting here. Had you shorted when the trendline was broken (where the quotation mark is), you would have had 4 hours to get out at BE, or be stopped out later. Waiting 4 hours is something I just don't do. In and out, quickly.



U/CHF is still being pushed lower and today we had a resistance-turned-support situation.

Market dynamics

The market changes. It has a different behavior in the first 3 hours of the London session and a different behavior when NY opens. This shouldn't come as a surprise.

The intraday dynamics is as follows. If London opens with a strong move, the move would usually continue for around 3 hours, travel all the way to a significant S/R level and then bounce. Depending on many factors, such as volatility, volume, etc. the retracement might happen before the NY open at 8 am EST or later. Often, nothing happens between 6am and 8.30am. There are times in the trading day that work as triggers - London open, NY open, 8.30 when on red news days, options market open, NYSE open.

A successful application of our bouncing strategy requires that the trader observes a big part the move before attempting to trade the bounce. It is different when a slowly-moving low-volume rally approaches a resistance level during Asia session, it is different when heavy elephant orders are thrown at the market just after 9am, and it is different when you witness a 50+ pip move on E/U in 4 minutes at 8.20 pm during Asia session.

If you're following the market, you know that everyone is talking about E/U bouncing off 1.40 and retracing lower. Well. When everyone is talking about this and attempting this, what is the most likely scenario? Let's analyze:

1) E/U comes to 1.40, bounces 240 pips and breaks the rising trendline of a channel. Boom, everyone thinks short. What does E/U do next? Starts retracing to the trendline and people get ready to short. People do get short, place their stops above 1.40 and wait. E/U starts rallying from 1.3960 during Asia (!) session, breaks through 1.40 and takes out all stops until 1.4055. Big money is now heavy short, because they had to take the other side of the buy stop orders above 1.4055. Next move? E/U immediately drops 30 pips as we speak.

2) E/U could have indeed bounced off 1.40, and traveled down to some Fibo level. This would have been too easy though. If E/U goes down, it will be later on, after more people get long when they notice the break above 1.40.

Now why am I talking about this.

This was my thought process as I was watching E/U rally: 1) Next resistance is 1.40, then 1.4024, might short around there if we don't see any crazy moves. 2) E/U showing no signs of weakness when we are just below 1.40 and I know there are many stops above the resistance level. 3) E/U blasts through 1.40 and 1.4024 in three minutes, triggering all stops of people who were short from before. 4) E/U is at 1.4055, then it's slashed down 10 pips in 0.5 second. I go short and E/U drops another 10 pips. 5) E/U starts ranging I get out.



At the same time, G/U was rallying too, U/J was getting hammered and A/U was 30 pips away from parity for the first time in history. As I was shorting E/U, I shorted G/U too. I watched U/J rally, U/CHF rally (greenback weakness) and held both for +35 pips total. I got out at my blue take profit level.






Had the situation been different, i.e. no attack on stops, but a slow, continuous move toward the highs, I would have shorted around 1.40. But seeing this massive stop-hunting effort, I didn't. I waited until the price "puked out" and then shorted.

What happens next? I don't know. A lot of money was lost and a lot of money is now short. Chances are a bigger retracement will happen, and then a rally.

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I'm sure many of you know that I trade NY mornings (7/8am - 9.30am) these months. I have made an observation that the market isn't very good for the bouncing/fading strategy around such a time of the day. The reason is that this strategy works best when you trade only the first bounce. That means you watch the move happen, and only trade the first bounce. The first bounce, however, almost never happens during these market hours. This doesn't make the strategy unusable, it only makes it unusable for me at the moment.

For this reason, I have decided to develop a new strategy tailored to the early morning hours on the East Coast. I will of course keep posting good technical trades that could have been taken during the day. I'm not sure what kind of strategy this is going to be yet, but since all working strategies take time to develop, don't expect miracles next week.

Tyler